6/23/15

comparing/contrasting the Venezuelan/Zimbabwean economic situations with historical hyperinflation "episodes"

In checking around the "deep Web" a few days ago, I found yet another update on Zimbabwe's ongoing economic meltdown of just epic proportions:


...which mentions that the "Zimbabwean $", for (more than) what that's worth now, will be "phased out" in the foreseeable future, to be "replaced" by various currencies, like our $, the British £, the Euro, the Chinese/Japanese ¥, and other international currencies... Apparently, however, I've noticed in some places that they introduced these small-valued "centavos" (the Spanish word for "cents"/"coins") last year, effectively keeping their (worthless) $ going, albeit only in coin form, unlike practically all other currencies, regardless of whether or not they use coins and notes, or either or...


...that being said, the numerous comparisons to other inflated/hyperinflated currencies of old, like Weimar Germany (1920s), most of Latin America, especially 1970s-90s Brazil, and their cruzeiro (the Portuguese word for "cross") (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boE_xlkBcJM&list=FLRgGN7E7EWySO2r7NcFtULQ&index=53 for an old supermarket commercial from back then that, I think, best explains that whole crisis), among others, have continued as a result of that still-breaking news...

http://www.cato.org/pubs/dpa/html/dpa6/dpa6index.html (a Cato Institute report on Zimbabwe's "growth" ever since they (supposedly) ditched their currency)

most "conspiracy theorist" types out there, though, think that somehow, as a result of what's ongoing in the rest of the world right now (North America, Europe, over here, and down in Australia/New Zealand) (mostly due to various government practices, yet these people keep voting in such radicalswith their votes, like Greece (the neo-Nazi "Golden Dawn", or the current far-left "ruling party" there, "Syriza", or Hungary (the also neo-Nazi "Fidesz") right now, for instance), there'll be some sort of "reset" of the world's currencies, and that, again, somehowthose places will soon experience similar situations, while those other places that have experienced/are experiencing such meltdowns will somehow be "prosperous" "soon"...

​...I don't know how long it's been since any of you last studied/taught/otherwise followed, if ever, any non-sports economics, or any (non-"spin zone") politics in general, but I'm sure you've continued to follow such situations ever since any new developments in whichever stories...

I like to think of stuff like this as an important "buffer" against all the "crazy talk" in the media (particularly the "fringe" "new media", where most of those "conspiracy theorists" tend to emerge, or, even, sadly, our "talk radio" landscape, promoting such fringe "ideas") about economics:
...mind you, that report is from a left-leaning website, but at least it's not all "doom and gloom", like the just aforementioned groups...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boE_xlkBcJM (for an example of what I just referred to, RE: 1990's Brazil)

I know some of you most likely just called Robert Mugabe's actions in control of Rhodesia/Zimbabwe these past decades "criminal" after reading the above part of this post, but, for those of us who claim ancestry/heritage/etc. from any Latin American country, that Brazilian example, in terms of historical economic free falls, and the Venezuelan example, in current times, in spite of the sheer size of the inflation figures there, both pale in comparison to the fact that military governments were everywhere up and down and across the continent last century - no wonder so many of them/us are on other continents now - it's because of those governments stifling just about every semblance of life down there back then! I mean, at least in 1920s "Weimar" Germany, the government was at least trying to help its citizens, more or less, and just failing spectacularly at doing so, since the country was still paying off its WWI losses... Argentina, Brazil, Chile, the 2 "Guays", Peru, etc., etc., however - between the "disappearances" in (mostly) Argentina and Chile, and the (hyper)inflation in (mostly) Brazil and Peru, life was basically a "living ****" for them back then!

specifically, in Peru, where (most of) my family is originally from, the currency in use now has the same name as their second post-Spanish independence currency (the "sol", abbreviated "S/"), but, from about 1980 on through the rest of that decade, inflation kept creeping ever higher - 1979 and 1981 saw the introductions of S/10.000 and S/50.000 banknotes, in fact, indicating the mere beginning of the country's inflationary crisis, but there's a report here https://prezi.com/tt_9lv1dhytc/inflacion-en-el-peru-1980-1990/ that indicates, among other things:

"SOCIAL
Huelgas , desabastecimiento , violencia, especulación.
Micro empresas en colapso.
Barcos en los puertos se negaban a descargar los productos hasta que no se les pague.
Divisas se agotaron por el mal uso.
En 1883 el fenómeno de el Niño daño a la agricultura e infraestructura vial.
En la sierra la salida de los Señores de la tierra dejo a las sociedades rurales descabezadas socialmente, sin nadie que ocupara su lugar y reactivara la producción."

('social' (causes of the inflation): strikes, stock withdrawals/"selloffs", violence, speculation. Collapsed small businesses. Ships in ports not unloading their cargo/products until they were paid. The currency was only further harmed by misuse. (stuff about "el Niño" and other (historical) climate/weather phenomena, and their (historical) effects on the population)

"ECONÓMICO
Tazas de interés se elevaron en países acreedores, incrementando las cuotas de los países deudores.
Escasez de divisas .
Devaluación de la moneda.
El dolar de EE.UU ,se cotizaba en 12000 soles ---gobierno militar 200 soles."

('economic': interest rates were elevated in creditor nations, incrementing the quotas for their debtors. Scarcity of banknotes/currency. Devaluation. The U.S.$ settled at S/12.000 - for the military government itself, only S/200.)

"POLÍTICO
Situación crítica y compleja por efecto de las drásticas medidas , la reducción de ingresos, estatismo de la banca , incremento de la burocracia
POLÍTICO
Política caudillista , egocéntrica y extremado centralismo en la política
ECONÓMICO
la protección a la industria nacional fue incrementada con altos ancéles, controles de importaciones y prohibiciones
Inflación dejada por Belaúnde (100%) trato de ser combatida de manera heterodoxa , con controles de precios, devaluaciones selectivas y congelamiento del tipo oficial de cambio
Llego a existir mas de media docena de tipo de cambio, según el uso que se les dieran a las divisas
estas parecían medidas intervencionistas permisibles.
El sol fue reemplazado por el inti (100 soles = 1 inti).
Reducción de la inflación a un 60%.
Salarios reales aumentaron.
La política del control de precios y congelamiento de tipo de cambios se prolongó, mas allá de lo recomendable.
Perù dejo de ser sujeto de crédito internacional para importantes agencias de cooperación como:
Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, Banco Mundial.
Agotamiento de las reservas del Perú.
Deuda externa aprox. Veinte mil millones de dolares.
Remuneraciones y consumo percápita por debajo del 50 %.
La producción agrícola nacional cayó ostensiblemente y la importación de productos aumentó un 49 %."

('political' 1: A complex/critical situation was created by effect of the drastic measures taken (by the military government). Wage reductions; banking 'statism', the incrementation of the 'bureaucracy')
(2: Caustic, egocentric, and incredibly centralized governance)

(more 'economic' causes: Protections for national industries were steadily removed through import controls and prohibitions. Inflation under (Fernando) Belaúnde (Terry, a top post-military 'junta' leader/President in the early 1980s) reached 100%+, and was attempted to be combatted in an "unorthodox" manner, with price controls, selective devaluations, and freezes on the official currency rates. There came to be over a half dozen types of official currency types, according to its overall use; as a result, the sol was replaced by the inti (I/) (in 1985), and inflation was thus reduced to about 60%. (Real) Salaries were increased. The policies of price controls and currency "freezes" were prolonged, beyond (most) recommendations. Peru was no longer subjected to the will of international creditors for important cooperation 'agencies' such as: the InterAmerican Development Bank; the World Bank; among others; resource reserves also increased. External debts numbered almost $20B. Remunerations and per-capita consumption fell below 50%. Agricultural production decreased by tons, and product imports increased 49%.)

"SOCIAL
El nivel del subempleo ascendió a un desastroso 73 % al término del gobierno aprista.
El número de horas perdidas por conflictos laborales con el gobierno,aumentó de 6 millones en 1985 a 124 millones en 1990.
El Grupo Andino redujo la inversión en el Perú
Inflación de 2,178.482 % considerada una hiper inflación y la mas alta a lo largo de la historia peruana y mundial."

(more 'social': Underemployment grew to a disastrous 73% at the end of the APRA (basically, the radicalleftist, version, back then, of what Venezuela is "living through", or perhaps "scraping by" would be a better term...) government. The # of hours lost due to labor conflicts with the government grew from 6M in 1985 to 124M in 1990. The Andean Group reduced its investments in the country, and inflation reached 2,178.842%, considered hyperinflation, and the largest in all of Peruvian and world history (back then, obviously, since the other situations have all rocketed past that % since then...)

There's more at the bottom about the consequences of all that stuff over in Brazil, but I already showed you an example of that meltdown, didn't I?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGXlYNOUtK0 (for another example from 1990's Brazil)

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